Monthly Market Update - October 13, 2023

Housing and mortgage markets adjusting to "Higher For Longer".

The Bank of Canada held rates unchanged at their scheduled announcement on September 6, but they left the door open to further increases. Their next rate announcement is scheduled for October 25. Bond yields rose again in September, pushing fixed mortgage rates higher. Hopes for lower interest rates in the near term are all but extinguished.


Housing sales declined in most markets. House prices have likewise declined in many markets. Inventory for sale has been increasing, indicating a return to a more balanced market.

Mortgage Market

  • The prime rate remains at 7.20%
  • Fixed mortgage rates rose again this past month, as shown below:
A table with numbers and letters on it
A graph showing the rate history of fixed and prime mortgage rates.

Curious what your best mortgage rate could be today?


FIND GREAT RATES

Mortgage Market Headlines

  • Fixed mortgage rates continued to rise in response to bond yields increasing in the September.
  • Short-term fixed mortgage rates (2 & 3 year rates) remain higher than 5 year mortgage rates
  • The Bank of Canada is not likely to start cutting rates until mid-2024. We expect little relief in the interim - RBC
  • No rate cuts until third quarter of 2024 - BMO
  • Higher for longer interest rate environment is squeezing more borrowers - International Monetary Fund
  • Each month that passes, roughly 2% of mortgage holders face renewal at sharply higher interest rates - Desjardins
  • Surging bond yields add to Canadian homeowner's mortgage pain as renewals loom - CTV
  • Borrowers with variable rates but fixed monthly payments are “at risk of suffering a significant payment shock” - OSFI
  • Bank of Canada won't rule out higher rates amid rising geopolitical risks - Financial Post
  • Inflation in Canada came in higher than expected at 4% in August, up from 3.3% in July. September inflation data will be released on October 17.

Housing Market

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI)  was down 0.3% month-over-month in September 2023, the first decline since March 2023. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.5% year-over-year.

A graph showing the residential price in canada

Housing Sales were down 1.9% month-over-month in September 2023. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were up by 1.9% over the prior year, September 2022.

A graph showing residential sales activity in canada

Housing Market Headlines

  • New listing activity in September rose 6.3% month-over-month - CREA
  • "Nationally, there were 3.7 months of inventory at the end of September 2023 - up from 3.5 months in August, but still below the long term average of about five months." - CREA
  • Royal LePage downgrades Q4 home price forecast.
  • Regionally, the steepest near-term sales and price drops should occur in B.C. and Ontario - TD
  • Half of non-homeowners losing hope of buying a home in Canada - MPC Survey
  • Buyers are willing to trade financial strain for the security of a place to call their own - Zolo
  • At least $1 trillion investment required to achieve housing affordability - CMHC
  • Single detached housing starts 25% lower that last year - CMHC
  • Almost half of Millennial and Gen-Z Canadian new homebuyers say they will need financial assistance to buy a home - Zoocasa
  • Only lower rates can revive Canada's housing market - Financial Post



Do you have questions about getting a new mortgage or refinancing?

BOOK A CONSULTATION

Best Mortgage Rates

Fixed
Variable
in

0.00 %

3 Year Fixed

Get Rates

0.00 %

5 Year Fixed

Get Rates
Check More Rates

About The Author

A man in a suit and striped shirt is smiling in a circle.

Don Scott

Don Scott is the founder of a challenger mortgage brokerage that is focused on improving access to mortgages. We can eliminate traditional biases and market restrictions through the use of technology to deliver a mortgage experience focused on the customer. Frankly, getting a mortgage doesn't have to be stressful.

Related Posts

A man in a suit is sitting at a desk with two people.
July 4, 2025
Introduction: The Appeal of Lower Monthly Payments For many first-time homebuyers in Canada, the 30-year mortgage amortization option might seem the key to homeownership. It offers lower monthly payments , making homes more affordable, especially in high-demand markets like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary. But there's a catch that many Canadians don’t fully consider until much later. While your monthly mortgage bill may be manageable, the cost of a 30-year amortization often lies in the significant interest you'll pay over time. So, the big question is: Are you saving money or just spreading out the cost with a more long-term financial burden? What Is a 30-Year Mortgage Amortization? In Canada, most conventional mortgages default to a 25-year amortization. However, with a larger down payment or when using alternative lenders, a 30-year amortization becomes available. This extended term means lower monthly payments, but significantly higher interest paid over the life of the loan. Amortization is how your loan is structured to be repaid. With a 30-year amortization, each mortgage payment covers part of the principal and the interest . In the early years, much of your payment goes to interest. That’s where the cost sneaks in. Lower Monthly Payments… But at What Cost? A longer amortization makes the monthly payments seem more manageable. For example, someone buying a home for $700,000 with a 20% down payment would borrow $560,000 . Here’s a simplified comparison at a 4.5% fixed interest rate: 25-year amortization : $3,099/month → ~$370,000 in total interest 30-year amortization : $2,823/month → ~$458,000 in total interest That’s over $80,000 more in interest paid over the lifetime of the mortgage. And remember, rates in Canada tend to fluctuate. If you renew at higher rates after your term, the costs can climb even further. Real-Life Example: Meet Raj in Ontario Raj, a 32-year-old IT consultant in Mississauga, was excited to secure his first home. With housing prices high, he opted for a 30-year amortization to reduce his monthly costs. It seemed manageable—just over $3,000/month. However, his mortgage broker at Frank Mortgage showed him the numbers: with a 25-year amortization, his monthly payment would be $350 higher, but he would save more than $90,000 in interest . Raj chose the 25-year option and plans to make lump-sum prepayments when his income increases, taking advantage of the flexible prepayment options standard in Canadian mortgage terms. How Interest Adds Up: A Glimpse at Amortization Let’s break down how the interest piles up in the early years:
A man and woman are sitting at a table talking to a man in a suit.
By Don Scott May 27, 2025
Feeling hesitant about entering the housing market today due to political or economic uncertainty is understandable. The landscape can seem unpredictable—interest rates shift, housing supply fluctuates, tariff news hits the headlines and policies change. As a mortgage broker, we see this uncertainty every day. But here’s the truth: while there is much beyond your control, mastering the factors that you can control is what will make the biggest difference in your journey to homeownership.
By George Holicka May 13, 2025
Better Times are Inevitable