Monthly Market Update - October 15, 2025

The Bank of Canada's September rate cut helped improve sentiment modestly and there are signs of a pick up in market activity. Affordability has improved materially over the last two years but remains challenging in high priced markets. Whether you're planning to buy or renew, it's worth running the numbers early to understand what financing in today's market means to you. You may be surprised by the affordability math or the benefit of refinancing.

The Bank of Canada cut their target rate by 0.25% on Sept 17th. This moved variable rates lower by a similar amount. Their next rate announcement is on Oct 29th. The market currently places 57% odds on another 0.25% cut but the upcoming inflation data could change this probability. 

Bond yields have not changed much, only down 0.08% from this time last month. There were some aggressive fixed mortgage rate specials in September that have expired and five year mortgage rates are either flat or up slightly compared to last month at most lenders. Some competitive rates are also available in the B-mortgage market.

Variable mortgage rates are very close to fixed mortgage rates now and will drop well below fixed rates if the Bank of Canada cuts rates later this month. Absent any economic or political surprises, we may see fixed rates remain fairly level for the balance of this year.

We have our fingers crossed that some lenders will remain aggressive into the fall. The best way to know which lenders have good offers and when they are being offered is to work with an experienced mortgage broker. Check with Frank Mortgage to find out where the best rates can be found to maximize your mortgage outcome, Get ahead of the anticipated active fall market and act now.

Housing sales were down slightly in September on a national level month-over-month but it was the most active September since 2021. This shows promise for a more active fall market.

Mortgage Market

• The prime rate is 4.70%
• The best nationally advertised mortgage rates are in the table below. There are often regional rates that are better, so check with your mortgage broker.

• The five year government bond yield is 2.68% today, 0.31% lower than last month. It peaked at 4.42% in October 2023

Curious what your best mortgage rate could be today?

Mortgage Market Headlines

Housing Market

Housing Sales declined 1.7% month-over-month in September 2025. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were up 5.2% versus the prior year, September 2024.

Housing Market Headlines

• New listing activity was down slightly in September by 0.8% month-over-month - CREA
• Nationally, there were 4.4 months of housing inventory for sale at the end of September 2025, below the long-term average of 5 months - CREA
• Despite being down month-over-month, the number of sales recorded in Sept was the best month of September since 2021 - CREA
• With three years of pent up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, the forecast continues to be for futher upward momentum in home sales over the final quarter of the year and into 2026 - CREA
• Interest rates are trending lower and prices have stabilized or even softened in some markets, creating favourable conditions for long awaited entry into home ownership - Royal LePage
• Housing affordability index improving - Bank of Canada
• Falling interest rates and rising household incomes are key factors in improving affordability, although results vary widely across the country - Parliamentary Budget Officer
• Royal LePage survey results:
• 13% of Canadian adults are working toward their first purchase within the next two years
• 41% of first-time buyers say they will receive financial assistance from family or friends
• 53% of first-time buyers plan to put down more than 20% on their purchase
• Finding a move-in ready home is the most important non-price related factor for new buyers
• Improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs, is starting to translate into higher home sales - TRREB
• Easing prices, near-record high inventory levels, and increasingly favourable borrowing costs are offering those looking to purchase a home this fall in Vancouver with plenty of opportunity - GVR
• Calgary home sales slide as inventory surges, prices retreat - Canadian Mortgage Professional
• Even as Edmonton's home supply increases, prices keep rising - Edmonton Journal
• No sign of a slowdown in Saskatchewan as housing market keeps surging - Canadian Mortgage Professional
• Winnipeg Sept housing sales up 12% y-o-y and up 7% from the 5 year average - WRREB
• GTA average home prices fell to levels last seen in Feb 2021 - Globe & Mail
• Toronto home sales jumped 8.5% year-over-year but prices slipped 5% - TRREB
• 3% of Toronto homes on the market are power of sale listings - Globe & Mail
• Hamilton home sales see 'positive shift' in September - The Hamilton Spectator
• Ottawa real estate gains pace; average prices up, but uneven recovery ahead - Ottawa Business Journal
• Nova Scotia home sales hit highest level since September 2021- NSAR
• Some buyers are holding off on entering the market because they're waiting for prices to drop even more, while others are still struggling with affordability and keeping an eye on the stormy economy - RBC
• Housing starts were up 4.1% in September - CMHC



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